Monday, 5 December 2011

Will Microfinance succeed in India?

Generally people have the following needs.

Lifecycle Needs: such as weddings, funerals, childbirth, education, homebuilding, widowhood, old age.
Personal Emergencies: such as sickness, injury, unemployment, theft, harassment or death.
Disasters: such as fires, floods, cyclones and man-made events like war or bulldozing of dwellings.
Investment Opportunities: expanding a business, buying land or equipment, improving housing, securing a job (which often requires paying a large bribe), etc.

Poor people find creative and often collaborative ways to meet these needs, primarily through creating and exchanging different forms of non-cash value. Common substitutes for cash vary from country to country but typically include livestock, grains, jewelry, precious metals and in some extreme cases wives.

Banks both public and private have failed to deliver credit to poor people because of lack of collateral, high operation cost and fear of high delinquency. Hence, microcredit evolved.

Microfinance is the provision of financial services to low-income clients or solidarity lending groups including consumers and the self-employed, who traditionally lack access to banking and related services.

More broadly, it is a movement whose object is "a world in which as many poor and near-poor households as possible have permanent access to an appropriate range of high quality financial services, including not just credit but also savings, insurance, and fund transfers."

The founders of the microcredit movement in the 1970s (such as Muhammad Yunus) have tested practices and built institutions designed to bring the kinds of opportunities and risk-management tools that financial services can provide to the doorsteps of poor people. While the success of the Grameen Bank has inspired the world, it has proved difficult to replicate this success.

Let us know Grameen better to understand their model whose success is getting increasingly difficult to replicate.

Grameen Bank  was the first major microfinance organization and community development bank started during 70’s in Bangladesh that makes small loans  known as microcredit to the impoverished without requiring collateral.

Grameen believes that charity is not an answer to poverty. It only helps poverty to continue as it creates dependency and takes away individual's initiative to break through the cycle of poverty, whereas loans offer people the opportunity to take initiatives in business or agriculture, providing earnings and enabling them to pay off the debt.

Grameen regards all human beings, including the poorest, as endowed with endless potential, and that unleashing the creativity in each individual should be the answer to poverty. Grameen has offered credit to many poor, women, illiterate and unemployed people. It created access to credit on reasonable terms such as the group lending system and weekly-installment payment with reasonably long term of loans, enabling the poor to build on their existing skill to earn a better income in each cycle of loans.

Grameen’s objective has been to promote financial independence among the poor. Yunus encourages all borrowers to eventually become savers so that their local capital can be converted into new loans. Since 1995, Grameen has funded 90 percent of its loans with interest income and deposits collected, hence aligning the interests of its new borrowers and depositor-shareholders. Hence, Grameen distinguishes itself from such institutions by converting deposits made in villages into loans for the more needy in the villages.

It targets the poorest of the poor, with a particular emphasis on women, who receives 95 percent of the bank’s loans. Women represent a suitable clientele because, given that they have less access to alternatives, such as traditional credit lines and incomes, they are more likely to be credit constrained and they have an inequitable share of power in household decision making. Lending to women also generates considerable secondary effects, including empowerment of a marginalized segment of society.

The interest rates charged by microfinance institutes including Grameen Bank are high compared to that of traditional banks; Grameen's interest (reducing balance basis) on its main credit product is about 20%.

Solidarity lending is a cornerstone of microcredit. Although each borrower must belong to a five-member group, the group is not required to give any guarantee for a loan to its member. Repayment responsibility solely rests on the individual borrower, while the group and the centre oversee that everyone behaves in a responsible way and none gets into a repayment problem. There is no form of joint liability, i.e. group members are not obliged to pay on behalf of a defaulting member. However, in practice the group members often contribute the defaulted amount with an intention of collecting the money from the defaulted member at a later time. Such behavior is facilitated by Grameen's policy of not extending any further credit to a group in which a member defaults

A group-based credit approach is applied which utilizes the peer-pressure within the group to ensure the borrowers follow through and use caution in conducting their financial affairs with strict discipline, ensuring repayment eventually and allowing the borrowers to develop good credit standing.

Another distinctive feature of the bank's credit program is that the overwhelming majority (98%) of its borrowers are women.

Success eludes

Aggressive lending by microcredit companies in Andra Pradesh is said to have resulted in over 80 deaths in 2010.  

Microcredit has been blamed for many suicides in India and the success eludes because of the following reasons:

1.      MFIs have deviated from success model perfected by Grameen.

2.      Too many institutions cater to poor in the same geographical area; more than one will make a crowd here. Discipline is cornerstone for the success of MFIs , especially the Harvard educated/ trained mangers of MFIs do not understand their customers unlike the local moneylenders who know each other well and live in the same community; they understand each other’s financial circumstances and can offer very flexible, convenient and fast services

3.      MFIs require social commitment to improve standards of their poor customers. MFIs who have accepted capital from private equity funds put themselves in difficulties to toe their schedule and line.

4.      MFIs have become greedy and wanted a growth which is untenable with a view to cater to requirements of equity analysts to help sell their IPOs at unrealistic prices, thus cheating investing public.

5.      Customer accounts have become inaccurate with management of some MFIs depositing cash on behalf of customers to keep the rating of their securitized papers high to raise money in cycles to fuel unmanageable growth, without any consolidation.

Briefly, MFIs intentions on websites read too well but in realty they are nothing but third grade finance companies and worse than the local moneylenders.

Nobody including RBI can change any of these unless MFIs realize themselves that they need to have their priorities right and have a social goal to help better the poor lives. MFIs success lies in making high number of poor families financia lly independent.


http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_NBFCNotificationView.aspx?Id=6857

Monday, 7 November 2011

Gold will continue to glitter, but......

All that goes up is Gold


Gold price has been going up for years now and is creating new highs quite often in the recent days.

  1. The gold is internationally traded with US Dollar and Dollar has been sliping in its value for various reasons. Dollar value is based on what is happening in US polity and economy. Dollar-derived demand is pushing up the prices.
  2. Many countries are required to maintain reserves in Gold and Foreign currencies. Many of them are increasing gold reserves and reducing foriegn currencies - read US Dollar. Soverign purchases are creating huge demand, which is also pushing up prices.
  3. Indians have been holding and adding to their holdings of gold jewellery contineously. Many westerners do have gold bars in their investments. But, the trend is changing, many non-indians especially chineese are clamouring to wear and hold gold and silver jewellery in large quantity. This has brought a major shift in demand for gold and consequently the prices of Gold.
Will the price go up further?
  • Yes, there is no respite or reasons seen for Gold price to come down in the near term, except when US economy stabilises and grows. This will take  quite some time, considering "US is in deep shit" - what amercian will say.
What should one do?
  • Keep buying in small quantities whenever the price falls by $100 per ounce, from recent new highs.

Know The Gold

What is Gold?


Gold (with atomic number 79 and atomic weight 197.2) is a “butter” yellow metal. Its melting point is 1063 oC, boiling point is 3081 oC and specific heat at 298 oK is 1.288 x 10-1 J/g.K.  Its best Field Indicators are color, density, hardness, sectility, malleability and ductility.

Gold purity is measured in terms of karats and fineness. Pure gold is defined as 24 karat.
Thus, 18 karat = (18/24) th of 1000 parts = 750 fineness (parts per thousand).

Why Gold?

The term gold is said by the scholars and philologists, to come from Sanskrit jvalita, derived from jval to shine. The word gold derives from the Anglo-Saxon gold, a word apparently corrupted from the Teutonic gulth glowing or shining metal. The Latin term of gold, aurum, and the earlier Sabine ausum are said to be words to early Italian origin related to aurora meaning glowing down. Another version has it that the Latin word aurum derives from the Hebrew aor meaning light. The Latin term is preserved in the chemical symbol for gold, Au, and in the terminology of its salts, aurous and auric.

Why Gold is precious?

Gold is one of the metals less active. Thus, do not suffer oxidation neither in air nor oxygen, for this reason is called noble metal.  Gold is a very stubborn element when it comes to reacting to or combining with other elements.

There are very few true gold ores, besides native gold, because it forms a major part of only a few rare minerals, it is found as little more than a trace in a few others or it is alloyed to a small extent with other metals such as silver.

Gold is almost indestructible and has been used and then reused for centuries to the extent that all gold of known existence is almost equal to all the gold that has ever been mined. Gold is a great medium metal for jewelry as it never tarnishes.

Gold has intrinsic beauty and great malleability.

Gold was a global currency once and continues to be playing the similar role even in current times.

When was & Where is Gold found ?

Early references to the first discovery of gold are essentially legendary or mythical. Thus, Cadmus, the Phoenician, is said by some early writers to have discovered gold; others say that Thoas, a Taurian king, first found the precious metal in the Pangaeus Mountains in Thrace. The Chronicum Alexandrinum (A.D. 628) ascribes its discovery to Mercury (Roman god of merchandise and merchants), the son of Jupiter, or to Pisus, king of Italy, who, quitting his own country went into Egypt. Similar legends and myths concerning the initial discovery of gold are extant in the ancient literature of the Hindus (the Vedas) as well as in that of the ancient Chinese and other peoples. In fact, the discovery of the element we call gold is lost in antiquity.

The principal source of gold in primitive times was undoubtedly stream placers, although there is considerable evidence in certain gold belts (e.g., Egypt and India) that alluvial deposits, auriferous gossans, and the near surface parts of friable (oxidized) veins were mined.

The total above ground stocks of gold is estimated to be around 1, 63,000 tonnes by Gold Fields Minerals Services (GFMS) as on end of 2008. Out of this total stock, 51% is estimated to be present as jewellery, 18% as official reserves, 17% held as investment, 12% used for industrial purposes and 2% is unaccounted for.

Jewellery accounts for almost two-thirds of annual gold demand with investment and industry being the other main drivers. The total annual global demand for gold has averaged 3530 tonnes in the last three years (2005 - 2008). However, it is expected to dip slightly in 2009, owing to the sharp rise in prices.

Five countries, viz., India, China, USA, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and UAE account for above 60% of gold demand, with each market driven by a different set of socio-economic and cultural factors.

The total global mine production is relatively stable, averaging approximately 2,455 tonnes per year over the last three years. Recycling of old gold scrap and official sector sales are the other major sources of supply, which have averaged 1084 tonnes and 378 tonnes in the last three years.

South Africa has been a major gold producer since 1880s and it is estimated that about 50% of all gold ever produced has come from this nation. While, during the early 1980's it produced about 1000 tonnes, the output in 2007 dropped to just 272 tonnes.

China with a production of 276 tonnes, overtook South Africa as the world's largest gold producer in 2007 for the first time since 1905. The other major producers are USA, Australia, Russia and Peru.

How is Gold measured?
 
                                                    Weight Conversion Table

To Convert        From-                         To -                                             Multiply by

                          Troy Ounce-              Grams-                                       31.1035
                          Grams-                      Troy Ounce-                               0.0321507
                          Kilograms-                Troy Ounce-                               32.1507
                          Kilograms-                Tolas-                                         85.755